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Why New York’s Redistricting Ruling is a Big Deal for 2024

Happening this Wednesday: House expected to vote on impeachment inquiry into President Biden… New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu endorses Nikki Haley… Latest release from Iowa poll shows 75% of likely GOP caucusgoers are confident Donald Trump can beat Biden… And Trump stumps in Iowa, while Haley remains in New Hampshire.

But FIRST… Of all the political news over the last 24 hours — Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to DC, House Republicans’ expected impeachment vote, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s endorsement of Nikki Haley — this might have been the most significant when it comes to 2024.

New York might get a new congressional map, which could assist Democrats in their effort to win back the House next November.

“In a 4-3 opinion issued Tuesday afternoon, [a New York] court ordered the state’s redistricting commission to draw a new map by Feb. 28, 2024,” NBC’s Jane Timm writes. “The state’s Democratic-controlled Legislature will ultimately get final say over the map, however, and Republicans have warned the Legislature is likely to gerrymander the map again.”

Why is this so significant? “The decision is a huge win for Democrats because it could ultimately allow the overwhelmingly Democratic legislature in Albany to draw a new gerrymander, putting up to six Republican-held seats in even deeper danger,” saysDavid Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

Wasserman adds that a new congressional map in New York — which still has to go through the state’s independent redistricting commission — has the potential to offset the GOP gains that Republicans appear to certain to get after their own re-redistricting in North Carolina.

“[J]ust as Republicans’ takeover of the North Carolina Supreme Court in 2022 cleared the way for Republicans to brutalize Democrats with a new gerrymander in 2023, the New York court’s leftward shift since 2022 led to [Tuesday’s] win for Democrats,” Wasserman writes.

And remember, the Republicans’ current House majority is hanging by a thread, especially after former Rep. George Santos’ expulsion and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s upcoming resignation.

So every House seat matters in the 2024 battle for control of Congress.

Source: NBC News